I haven’t see ole Beth in a while, so I thought I’d check out how her latest prediction was going.
Almost eighteen months on (I like to give people the benefit of the doubt), she’s pretty much flunked it on the Mystic Meg Barometer Of FUD. Looking at her three market segments:
(1) The desktop.
“The next 12 months will bring a new breed of tablets and notebooks which will run Ubuntu on ARM.”
Um, no. That didn’t happen. Nor did the thin client revolution she predicted, which is hardly a surprise, because it continuously hasn’t happened for the last fifteen years or so.
(2) Web Browsers.
Is this really a market? Since nobody actually pays money for a browser, it’s difficult to measure “market share” in any meaningful way. However, on anecdotal evidence, I’ll give Beth this one. I’d guess that IE and Chrome are neck-and-neck at about 35%. (It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Firefox implodes.)
(3) Office Suites.
Now she’s just being silly.
It’s a typical Loon article, full of flail and ridiculous statistical claims. Take this one:
In the past twelve months Windows market share went from 88.09% to 83.11%. The Windows XP product, which continues to hold the largest market share went from 69.74% to 49.95% of the total desktop operating system market share. The trend is showing as people divest from older Microsoft technologies, they do not “upgrade” to Windows Vista or Windows 7.
Is that so? Hard to see where that 19.79% of market share went to, then, isn’t it?