I haven’t see ole Beth in a while, so I thought I’d check out how her latest prediction was going.
Almost eighteen months on (I like to give people the benefit of the doubt), she’s pretty much flunked it on the Mystic Meg Barometer Of FUD. Looking at her three market segments:
(1) The desktop.
“The next 12 months will bring a new breed of tablets and notebooks which will run Ubuntu on ARM.”
Um, no. That didn’t happen. Nor did the thin client revolution she predicted, which is hardly a surprise, because it continuously hasn’t happened for the last fifteen years or so.
(2) Web Browsers.
Is this really a market? Since nobody actually pays money for a browser, it’s difficult to measure “market share” in any meaningful way. However, on anecdotal evidence, I’ll give Beth this one. I’d guess that IE and Chrome are neck-and-neck at about 35%. (It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Firefox implodes.)
(3) Office Suites.
Now she’s just being silly.
It’s a typical Loon article, full of flail and ridiculous statistical claims. Take this one:
In the past twelve months Windows market share went from 88.09% to 83.11%. The Windows XP product, which continues to hold the largest market share went from 69.74% to 49.95% of the total desktop operating system market share. The trend is showing as people divest from older Microsoft technologies, they do not “upgrade” to Windows Vista or Windows 7.
Is that so? Hard to see where that 19.79% of market share went to, then, isn’t it?


Comments
“In the past twelve months Windows market share went from 88.09% to 83.11%”
Reminds me of http://xkcd.com/605/ .
What kind of market share is she talking about? Just desktops or just devices in general (including tablets)?
We’re talking about a Loon Primus here. She’s talking about all markets, from the souk to CDOs.
It’s World Domination, you see (I’m not kidding). Here’s her link to the theoretical underpinnings:
http://whatwillweuse.com/2009/06/30/post-1-defining-where-microsoft-has-significant-market-share/
“What Was She Smoking?“
Pot. Drug of choice for leftards, extreme liberals, closet communists and generally anyone who doesn‘t have and doesn‘t intend to do anything in his life.
Well, that cancels out all the things that make my life living.
What do you do for fun? Pirating?
No Buttercup for you!
Incidentally, young Greek intellectual:
Once you’ve stolen everything that isn’t nailed down and yet is rightfully yours, what are you going to do with your life?
Just askin’.
@Ian:
Oh, and to revise my linking comment up there, she’s talking about “the total desktop operating system market share.”
Is there, perhaps, a way I could make this more obvious for Windows Fanbois? I mean, just sticking it into bold-face doesn’t seem to do it.
Possibly I could boil the quotes down to a single ten word sentence. Yup, maybe that would work. It would lose the essence of the thing, but what is essence compared to universal clarity?
I love the numbers. 88%? Windows market share has remained above 90% for nearly a decade now.
XP was also eclipsed by Windows 7 as the most used version. Seems the stats loon believes that XP is the only viable measure of Windows market share and that Vista and 7 don’t count.
Vista!?
Like they would ever acknowledge its success… Sure, it wasn’t adopted as widely as Windows 7 or XP, but they will never mention its market share. After all, Vista was a complete and utter failure! But Linux is a winner!
(Because, you know, Vista has/had like 20% market share [if I remember correctly, to lazy to check :P] while Linux has yet to crack 1%, and by mentioning that it would display that by those standards of failure Linux would be an uber-mega-colossal-I can’t think of anything else-FAILURE)
Viva la Unity!
“Once you’ve stolen everything that isn’t nailed down and yet is rightfully yours, what are you going to do with your life?”
I haven’t “stolen” anything, because copyright infringement is not stealing according to the law, not even in the US law (and of course not the Greek law).
Just because YOU and call it stealing doesn’t make it stealing, in the same way that if I call you a pink unicorn doesn’t make you a pink unicorn.
As regards the “what are you going to do with your life”, I am going to finish the (rathole i call a) university in a year or so, and my parents have already secured me a position at a bank with little work and good pay.
“Just because YOU and call it stealing doesn’t make it stealing, in the same way that if I call you a pink unicorn doesn’t make you a pink unicorn.”
In much the same way, just because you “give back” to your fellow freeloaders your act of freeloading still won’t be any more than an act of freeloading.
And as someone whose sole purpose in life is to live on a corporate paycheck, you sure have a lot to say about corporations.
@Kurkos:
What an absurd argument.
If you ask a thousand people the question “Is Dr Loser a pink unicorn,” you will get about 990 incredulous “nos” and ten silly buggers. They don’t even have to know anything about me. They just have to know that pink unicorns (in the absence of a sudden discovery of the next West Australia) do not exist.
If you ask a thousand people whether KurkosDR is a thief, and you explain his magnificent philosophy regarding copyright law, you will get a good 80% saying, yes, that man is a thief. Because thieves exist, and you are a thief.
Now, whether it is legal thievery is another matter. You might recall the recent brouhaha concerning merchant banks and the like. And whether people object to you being a thief is also another matter. Many people casually pirate whatever they can get away with.
But no honest person would disagree with the notion that, in common terms, you are a thief.
Personally I happen to think that you are a despicable and amoral thief, but that’s just me.
Hope the paternalist job goes well. You sound admirably fitted for it. Rather unfortunate that the immediate economy around you is going tits up precisely because it is filled with people like you, isn’t it?
In other words, keep stealing whatever isn’t nailed down and then run away before you get hanged upside down for a lamp-post.
You have trained well, young Jedi.
I’d recommend America, if you have any family contacts there.
But yes, you’re entirely correct. Just because I call it stealing doesn’t make it stealing.
Do you see where this is going?
The reason it is stealing is because it is stealing.
It’s sort of obvious, really. Keep up with the logic electives at the rat-hole university, though.
And here’s a thought (just occurred to me as the son of a University Lecturer):
What’s your position on academic plagiarism?
That would be almost as interesting as Adam admitting that he knows fark all about Linux.
> I haven’t “stolen” anything, because copyright infringement is not stealing according to the law, not even in the US law
So nice, you appeal to law here. So, it’s not stealing because law doesn’t call it stealing?
How about a little research before you make claims like this (or about patent system for that matter)
This little thing called search engine could have lead you to US Code – Chapter 113: Stolen property – Section 2319 Criminal infringement of a copyright
http://codes.lp.findlaw.com/uscode/18/I/113/2319
Well, if “property” is “stolen” it doesn’t necessarily mean that you actually steal something
What plagiarism would that be, Doctor?
It’s just academic rules infringement, you know.
Hardly a matter worth concerning yourself about.
—————————————-
And in the bank it may well become “financial rules infringement”; I fear however, that the law might recognise that as theft…
—————————————-
@Kurkos
It’s nigh time for you to recognise the value of other people’s work (even intellectual work), lest you find yourself at the wrong end of just such lack of recognition.
Oh, and it definitely doesn’t mention theft (theft is mentioned in other sections), so we don’t have a right to call you thieve. It also doesn’t mention piracy, so Doctor, you SHOULD STOP calling our Kurkos a pirate. US law doesn’t allow you to do this.
US law doesn’t mention loons – stop using that word. I’m also pretty sure that none of your so called trademarks here are really registered with USPTO. Stop using TM sign. Heck, there is no such thing as Linux, Windows or operating system in general according to US law – why are guys discuss non-existent things over here?
@RC:
Oh, I don’t know. In order to suffer that fate, he’d have to be an intellectual.
Not just a disaffected thieving college kid with rich and influential parents.
@Linsuxoid:
You do have a very serious point there. I am ashamed by my serial immorality, cant, lying, and deception.
No soup for me!
I will venture to put “Reverse” and “Controller” into the body of law right swift!
The proper definitions of truth must be upheld in our glorious Tomes of Lawcraft!
(Back in the day we just used encyclopaedias, but that’s just silly and will no longer do.)
Actually, you’re confusing Registered Trade Marks with simple Trade Marks, but I forgive you, for you have not sinned.
U.S. Code: Chapter 113-Stolen Property.
Section 2311 Definitions
Section 2312 Transportation of stolen vehicles
Section 2313 Sale or receipt of stolen vehicles
Section 2314 Transportation of stolen goods, securities, moneys, fraudulent State tax stamps, or articles used in counterfeiting
Section 2315 Sale or receipt of stolen goods, securities, moneys, or fraudulent State tax stamps
Section 2316 Transportation of livestock
Section 2317 Sale or receipt of livestock
Section 2318 Trafficking in counterfeit labels, illicit labels, or counterfeit documentation or packaging
Section 2319 Criminal infringement of a copyright
Section 2319A Unauthorized fixation of and trafficking in sound recordings and music videos of live musical performances
Section 2319B Unauthorized recording of Motion pictures in a Motion picture exhibition facility
Section 2320 Trafficking in counterfeit goods or services
Section 2321 Trafficking in certain motor vehicles or motor vehicle parts
Section 2322 Chop shops
Good grief! We need lawyers in here, stat!
I have a very bad feeling that we have failed to even begin to comprehend the true complexity of proper and lawful word usage.
(I fear to even think about the terrible and tragic mistakes I myself may have done in this very post.)
@Linsuxoid:
To be fair, PirateBoy™ torrentz. He is not actually the original thief.
I’m prepared to accept his defence that, in US legal terms, he is not, therefore, a thief.
He is, however, a receiver of stolen property.
It’s a very thin distinction in the courts, but, I think, one worth making. Particularly if you have wealthy parents who can afford a good lawyer.
What the Greek Orthodox Church might say about this so-called moral position is, however, an entirely different matter. Mind you, they’ve been thieving bastards since about Justinian’s time, which might explain a lot really.
This conversation somehow makes me want to post this:
http://microsoft-news.com/bill-gates-response-to-steve-jobs-on-windows-rip-off-claim/
“Their meeting was in Jobs’s conference room, where Gates found himself surrounded by ten Apple employees who were eager to watch their boss assail him. Jobs didn’t disappoint his troops. “You’re ripping us off!” he shouted. “I trusted you, and now you’re stealing from us!” Gates just sat there coolly, looking Steve in the eye, before hurling back, in his squeaky voice, what became a classic zinger. “Well, Steve, I think there’s more than one way of looking at it. I think it’s more like we both had this rich neighbor named Xerox and I broke into his house to steal the TV set and found out that you had already stolen it.””
So I guess business people call copyright infringement stealing and loons call it, well, not stealing, I guess.
It’s actually more like Xerox had put in on the front lawn with a sign saying “Garage Sale Remnants: Free to a good home.”
But I take your point.
“To be fair, PirateBoy™ torrentz. He is not actually the original thief. ...”
Well, by using bit torrent, he has to upload – which means he is directly harming the authors by redistributing copyrighted material.
This little fact makes his theft completely unimportant – both from a financial or moral perspective (and then there is also the perspective of the law).
Because it hardly matters how he got his wares – be it original theft, or copy-cat download – what matters is that he continues to use them to harm the authors.
When asked about what does he give to humanity, he proudly admitted that he maintains ratio above 1.
“In other words, keep stealing whatever isn’t nailed down and then run away before you get hanged upside down for a lamp-post.”
Well, I wonder what his boss is going to say to him in the chopper before pushing him into an crowd of angry rioters.
“But I thought you’d look after me.”
“Sorry, son. I think it’s about time for you to pay back.”
Well, at least his tragic story will always be remembered as “The Life and Times of a Worthless Patsy”, won’t it?
This conversation about copyright infringement (aka “theft of digital goods” or “piracy”) reminds me of people who try to lecture you about why you shouldn’t be going 1 kmh above the speed limit. “OMG! You may end up harming someone”. Well, no-one cares. Everybody breaks the speed limit, and everybody torrents stuff once in a while. DrLoser, you mean you 've NEVER illegally torrented anything?
“Reminds me of people who try to lecture you about why you shouldn’t be going 1 kmh above the speed limit. “OMG! You may end up harming someone”. Well, no-one cares. Everybody breaks the speed limit, and everybody torrents stuff once in a while.”
You now sound like the last guy who got busted for fraud.
“Everybody does it!”
Keep up the good work there, my future patsy.
Kurkos:
Your memory is prematurely aged: either that or you are a very mature immature student.
You’ve asked me that exact same question before. The answer then was “no I haven’t.” In the intervening few weeks, that answer has not changed. Even having read your paeans of praise for teh beauty of teh torrentz, I doubt it ever will.
And here’s a similar analogy, based on your analogy. I have been caught drunk-driving. It was wrong, etc, but that’s not my point.
Are you seriously suggesting that I now have carte blanche to drink-drive as much as I want?
Are you insane?
I used torrents (and ed2k, and dc, and several others) – I’m originally from third world country too (I think it’s even more screwed than Greece), but I’ve never been proud of it and never actually tried to justify it except for the fact that I didn’t have money to buy (I’ve bought most of the old software I once pirated when I’ve got money).
In fact I’ve used my mad programming skillz to modify clients so they don’t share anything – I preferred to harm other fellow pirates and not content authors.
And I can argue with the “haven’t got money – don’t use software” point. Software is pretty big factor in social elevators in failed states like mine, especially professional one – development and design tools, which is accidently the most expensive one as well. I just wouldn’t get any money to “pay back later” if not for piracy.
Microsoft is one of the few who realizes this now (there was no DreamSpark/BizSpark or heavily discounted software for students back then), so probably I wouldn’t pirate today.
Yeah, BizSpark/DreamSpark is great. I wouldn’t pirate Visual Studio (though there are free versions) or Windows Server if I didn’t have access to DreamSpark, but it is certainly great that they offer it.
But BizSpark and DreamSpark are more of Microsoft’s “evil” plan to get you sucked into using their software (not that it’s a bad idea).
At least with BizSpark, because if they give small businesses free Office and what not, when those companies grow they will be a lot more likely to purchase Microsoft’s software because their company now has Microsoft ingrained in its very being.
Brilliant! :P
Revisiting the insano statistics, btw, and correct me if I’m wrong:
First you have to accept that these are honest, reputable, accurate statistics. OK, we’ll take that as a baseline.
Now, 19.8% – 5% is 14.8%. That’s to say: even if 5% of Windows users (XP and before) fled the coop, there’s still nearly 15% who have upgraded in only twelve months.
If I was a Microsoft shareholder, employeee, or shill — none of which I am — I’d be mighty encouraged by numbers like that. Particularly halfway through what I call a depression and more mealy-mouthed people think is a double-dip.
The great thing about Loons is that they can’t even follow the logic of their own conclusions … which are non-attributable in the first place.
Add the all-around bitchiness, instability, and incompetence, and it’s a wonder they can manage even 1% of the market.
I think this says something very profound, and very sad, about the Western World.
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