Well, OK, Dvorak isn’t a keyboard; he’s an old-style computer columnist, who mostly knows what he’s talking about. This here is an impressive piece of FUD, though.
It’s a mixture of reasonable comments (“people have a limited amount of money to spend on tech”), unfounded assertions (“people are buying Macs [instead of upgrading their Windows OS, apparently]”), nut-job economics and absurd prognostications.
In other words, it follows the standard Tech Press template used by such champions of FUD as SJVN. Yet Dvorak really isn’t that blinkered and/or absurd. What’s going on here?
I suspect it’s good old-fashioned GroupThink. If you work in the world of tech media, then you are going to read an awful lot of this stuff, and eventually it will seep through even the most critical defences and rot your brain. This is a bit of a worry.
Oh, that nut-job economics thesis? Well, Windows has almost zero marginal cost, you see. This means that you should, er, sell it for $10 (number picked out of the air) rather than $50 (low-ball product picked to make a point of some sort). Well, yes, except that by Dvorak’s own argument you would now need to sell five times as many copies just to break even. Given that 95% of Windows users never upgrade from the version that comes with the machine — and incidentally this would wreak havoc with the OEM licensing — this is a distinctly unlikely proposition.
And the prognostication?
Then there’s the threat from Linux.
What threat?
So, goodbye, Wintel. We knew thee well. Hello, Apple and Linux.
Even SJVN has never quite gone this loopy.
Comments
Shame to see more people have drank the kool-aid. I think RMS just uses a bunch of mobsters (that for some reason believe in the 'cause’) to forcefully feed it to people in dark alleys.
This is mostly market speculation. I learned some time ago to never do, analyze, or care about market speculation. “Analysts” have been telling us for decades how company X will fail or product Y will be the next big thing, we don’t need Dvorak (as much as I like some of his writings) to do that too. All pointless bickering.
“Then there’s the threat from Linux. How long would that threat exist if you could buy Windows for $29.95 and upgrade for $10? There would be zero threat.
With billions of computers, we are talking about billions of free dollars and a return to a ridiculous 95 percent Windows market share.”
Ahem, doesn’t MS actually still have 95% market share worldwide?
Apple is absurdly overpriced (merely overpriced in the US) and Linux persuades users not to use it all by itself.
So he’s basically saying MS needs to kill off its own profit margin so as to achieve… what exactly?
Oooh I get it, he just wants cheaper Windows – freetard influence confirmed.
(Not to mention the fact that Windows Home Premium OEM actually is around $30)
I agree on this one. Upgrading a Windows system is a pain, no matter what the Windows fans say. It was the main reason i switched to OS X. I just want to upgrade to the next version without my brain hurting in the process.
First we have that stinky little internal bluetooth dongle/card reader, or USB device that “doesn’t have drivers for that new version”. You are screwed. Throw away that USB device, or if it’s internal, pretend it never existed. Then you have the high cost of a Windows license, much higher that OEMs pay.
The end result? People won’t upgrade, and they just stay with whatever version of Windows their system had. And no, upgrading to a new version of the same OS doesn’t justify the purchase of a new PC, because people don’t see much benefit in that, and the age of the gaming rig is over (many thanks to the PS3 for that), so it doesn’t drive new computer sales like it used to.
The result? Users want to try something new, and Macs offer just that. The completely new Mac experience, along with the promise that future upgrades will roll smoothly (and more cheaply), acts as an incentive to buy a Mac. It worked for me.
Linux isn’t a competition to Windows. OS X is.
Ahem, how many (new?) MacOS programs run on a Mac from 2006 (when Macs still used Power processors instead of x86)?
Because we can still use 2011 Windows programs on WinXP from 2001.
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How many old (pre 2007) MacOS programs run on any new (x86) Mac?
On Windows 7 SP1 (from 2011) you can still run programs from early 90’ (via XP mode you can even run MS-Dos and Win16 programs from the 80’).
I seem to remember Windows 7 upgrade license was $30 for the Ultimate version in preorder.
So the whole “Windows costs too much” is a red herring.
Windows XP (equivalent of Mac OS 10; no, Mac OS is not even remotely on the level of Windows NT 6.x line) has had free updates for the entire decade, while you have to pay for the updates to Mac OS (and no, a new cat name does not a new OS make).
Bottom line – Macs cost way more and break all compatibility once or twice a decade.
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Windows, on the other hand, remains back and forward compatible for decades and relatively inexpensive.
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