Canonical Guesswork and Hero Worship

Some people claim that the only thing the Linux Desktop needs is better marketing. I don’t know why they say that, when Ubuntu gets guff like this for free.

So far, my favourite bit is “It is hard to guess how much revenue Canonical might be generating [reasons why it’s not the same as Novell or Red Hat follow] ... Depending on the year, Novell and Red Hat are generating around $235,000 to $240,000 per employee, and given that ratio, that should have put Canonical at somewhere around $30m in sales in calendar 2007, up above $52m in 2008 and kissing up against $80m in 2009.”

It’s hard to describe how incredibly stupid and fuddy this is. First, you admit that the business model is entirely different. Then, you use the same business model. Then, you assume the same cash generation per employee (ignoring things like time to market, etc). Then, you assume that, just because Canonical has gone from 100ish to 300ish employees, every single one of those new employees is generating the same turnover.

And there was I, back in 1998, wondering how anybody could justify the astronomical claims made by dot com companies. If anything, this is even sillier. Time for an IPO, Mark, before the giant bubble bursts.